Peak Opportunities: 2008

NOTE: See our postings of March 19, June 21 and August 31, 2008.

Cantarell Field,which first produced in 1979, is the second or third largest oil field in the world.
Cantarell's production rate was 2,100,000 barrels per day in 2004.
In 2005, production began to decline, for the first time.
As shown in the title, production has declined from 2,100,000 barrels per day to 862,060 barrels per day, in just 4 years.

This is why we call Cantarell Field the "Peak Oil Poster Child".

Pemex Oil Production Drops 6.5% on Cantarell Field (Update2)
By Andres R. Martinez

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Petroleos Mexicanos, the state-owned oil company, said crude oil output fell 6.5 percent in November from the year-earlier period as production at its Cantarell field declined at a faster-than-expected rate.

Production dropped to 2.711 million barrels a day, from 2.901 million barrels a day a year earlier, the company known as Pemex said today on its Web site. In an e-mail, Pemex cited Cantarell, its largest field, as the reason for the drop.

The Mexico City-based company in October lowered its 2008 output forecast by 3.6 percent to as low as 2.7 million barrels a day after interruptions from hurricanes. It was the third time Pemex reduced its forecast this year, after a faster-than- expected decline at Cantarell, the world’s third-largest field.

Cantarell’s output fell 33 percent, more than twice as fast as government estimates, to 862,060 barrels a day from a year earlier. Declining pressure at Cantarell has made it more expensive and harder to continue pumping oil from the offshore deposit.

Cantarell accounted for 32 percent of Pemex’s total output, half of the 65 percent it once represented at its peak.

Oil exports fell 20 percent to 1.511 million barrels a day, according to a chart on Pemex’s Web site.

Mexico is the third-largest supplier of crude to the U.S. Canada and Saudi Arabia are the first- and second-largest suppliers.

Crude oil for February delivery fell $2.45, or 5.8 percent, to settle at $39.91 a barrel at 2:43 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil has tumbled about 72 percent from a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

Natural-gas production jumped 19 percent to a record high of 7.239 billion cubic feet a day in November.

To contact the reporter on this story: Andres R. Martinez in Mexico City at amartinez28@bloomberg.net

The 2008 ASPO-USA Conference held September 21-23, 2008, in Sacramento, California, featured excellent speakers and significant content. Several nice versions of notes from the Conference have now been published. Further, essentially all of the presentations from the Conference are available in PDF form on the ASPO-USA site at:

http://www.aspo-usa.org/aspousa4/proceedings/

However, if you are like many of us, you may feel as though you don't have the time to download and view all of these presentations, as good as they may be. So, in an effort demonstrate the quality of the content in these presentations, and also as a convenient reference, a selection of slides from a number of the presentations is posted below. The captions shown above each slide indicate this author's comments; the author of the presentation is shown in parentheses, if not on the slide.

Specifically, below you'll find a map showing the locations of that offshore oil which we all keep talking about; the location of ANWR and the relative size of the portion they wish to develop in comparison to the wilderness area; a neat graphic which makes each country's geography proportional to its oil endowment; interesting insights into China's oil and coal consumption; coal reserve info; coal plant efficiency, clean coal and sequestration efficiencies; carbon emissions of coal v. natural gas and much more.

Note: Only a portion of the presentations are represented here; by no means is that reflective of the quality of the presentations not represented here. It is well worth viewing each of the presentations at the ASPO link shown above.

Clean bar graphs showing world importers, and exporters.

Graphical explanation of how much needs to be found, just to "break even".

Big map of N Alaska - where ANWAR, Prudehoe are located.
(Gill Mull)

The "1002 Area", less than 10% of ANWR, where the oil is.
(Gill Mull)

Estimates of "undiscovered" oil in each of the N. Alaska areas.
(Gill Mull)

Simple graph showing US oil production decline, and that of Alaska.
(Gill Mull)

But: diminishing returns from areas added in Alaska, to date.
(Gill Mull)

A startling conclusion.
(Gill Mull)

Neat graphic showing oil producing countries, with their geography proportionately scaled to reflect their oil endowment.
(Jeremy Gilbert)

Excellent - here is how much oil is theoretically available
in each of the prohibited access, offshore areas.
(Jeremy Gilbert)

Ranking of world's largest oilfields.
(Jim Buckee)

Composite map identifying major fields in the Middle East.
(Jim Buckee)

Various named portions of Ghawar, the world's largest oilfield.
Note: Best quality reservoir is in the North, quality gets progressively poorer going South.
(Jim Buckee)

Macro diagram of Middle East deposition and "goodosity".
(Jim Buckee)

Ghawar basics. Has produced 59 - 66 % of what it will ultimately produce.
Note: "Peak Oil" peak rate usually occurs near 50 % depletion, due to physics.
(Jim Buckee)

Mexico's Cantarell - the significant decline is a relatively new phenomenon.
(Jim Buckee)

World Ethanol & "XTL" production and forecast.
Yes, we need it. No, it won't get us out of bind, alone.
(Jim Buckee)

Who, really, is "Big Oil". Hint: Not ExxonMobil, BP or Chevron.
(Jim Buckee)

Lots of estimates on the total endowment of recoverable oil,
but they seem to average around 2 trillion barrels; we've produced about 1 trillion.
(Jim Buckee)

Energy Conservation is first!
(Andy Weissman)

Plan is needed, use the "ripest" options, must begin immediately!
(Andy Weissman)

Thinks gas demand is being underestimated, with grave consequences.
In the end, gas & electricity will likely trade near BTU par with oil.
(Andy Weissman)

Not just an oil/liquid fuels problem - electricity & gas, too.
(Andy Weissman)

Economic effects of natural gas price parity.
Note: this conference was about 3 weeks ago; since that time
our economy has already become crippled! Wow.
(Andy Weissman)

But oil dependence is still the biggest issue. Mr. Weissman seems to understand the seriousness of the situation.
(Andy Weissman)

Potential economic effects.
Note: This conference was about 3 weeks ago; since
that time, California has gone into crisis again - to the tune
of $7 billion.
(Andy Weissman)

This was fresh information for me. But not surprising.
LNG near parity with oil in some markets.
(Andy Weissman)

Five Essential Steps (1-3 shown)
(Andy Weissman)

Five Essential Steps (4-5 shown)
(Andy Weissman)

New approach is needed.
(Andy Weissman)

Action needed now!
(Andy Weissman)

Differences in product costs due to shipping, with higher oil prices.
(Jim Puplava)

Where China get's it electricity. Coal.
(David Fridley)

China's oil is largely for "non-discretionary" uses. In other words,
it is more painful for them to do without. Think about it.
(David Fridley)

Trouble: They will even have a problem with coal.
Exports are going down, imports are going up.
Imports only started a few years ago ...
(David Fridley)

Energy used by the world, by region and by fuel.
(David Hughes)

How many more years of coal do we have in the US?
(David Hughes)

Type of hydrocarbons used by world, versus left in the world.
(David Hughes)

When coal production may "peak", and each country's contribution.
(David Hughes)

How clean can you get "clean coal", what does it do to the plant efficiency?
(David Hughes)

Comparison of Carbon Capture and Storage systems (CCS),
efficiencies of various plant technologies, with and without CCS.
(David Hughes)

Comparison of Carbon Capture and Storage systems (CCS),
capital costs of various plant technologies, with and without CCS.
(David Hughes)

Efficiencies: Heat Capture v. IGCC with CCS
(David Hughes)

An important, big picture message from Mr. Hughes.
Conservation should be first and foremost.
Further plant complexity is only a stopgap.
(David Hughes)

Complexity v. Simplicity: Sustainability is found at the balance point.
(David Hughes)

A bigger, big picture.
(David Hughes)

Power Down - or Collapse. That is the question.
Note: Mr. Hughes is quite cognizant of the other forms
or alternate and conventional energy.
(David Hughes)