Sunday, August 31, 2008

Putting Cantarell's continued decline into perspective

PEMEX recently announced that Cantarell Field produced just 1,010,000 barrels of oil per day in July, versus 1,050,000 barrels per day in June. That's a drop of 40,000 barrels per day, in just one month. Now, an oilfield's production does fluctuate month-to-month, but to put this into perspective, a loss of 40,000 barrels per day is equal to 30% of the estimated peak production rate from Shell's Perdido project, which is being constructed in 8000' of water near the international boundary with Mexico!

The Perdido project (http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell/our_strategy/major_projects_2/perdido/perdido_13032008.html) is a multi-billion dollar, multi-year project using state-of-the-art technology. Yet the world's second largest oilfield is capable of dropping 30% of the ultimate, maximum rate of this project - in just one month!

What will we do when Mexico, the 5th (was 4th) largest exporter of oil to the U.S., has no more oil for us? Good question. Unfortunately, we'll find out the answer before long.

This is what Peak Oil is all about. World-wide, there are many oil and gas projects that need to be pursued. But they just can't keep up with the depletion from the "Giant" oilfields that we've unconsciously relied upon for years!

So, what do we need to be doing? We need to increase the rate of implementation of the following efforts:

  • energy conservation (this is where we can have the greatest effect, the soonest)
  • mass transportation retrofits (likely optimized and marketed bus and carpool efforts)
  • natural gas vehicles and stations (start with fleets to solve the Catch-22)
  • expanded natural gas drilling (solve infrastructure & supply problems)
  • wind energy (stop the tax credit hocus pocus - fix it for a reasonable time period)
  • vehicular electrical storage research (cost effective and reliable batteries or other devices)
  • design & production of more efficient cars (lighter, smaller EV's, plug-in hybrids and diesels)
  • offshore drilling (offshore West Coast, East Coast, Florida Coast)
  • biofuels research (enzyme & pyrolysis-based cellulosic ethanol, algae-based oil production)
  • nuclear plants (fast-track & standardize the design, licensing and construction)
  • coal plants (use best available, cost-effective clean up technology)
  • solar thermal innovations & implementations

1 comment:

Thomas Jefferson said...

We need to do a lot of things and not to be a wet blanket, but just about everything you mention as to "what we need to do" requires oil.

Aside from conservation, everything in your list requires oil.

mass transportation retrofits (likely optimized and marketed bus and carpool efforts)
-requires lots of oil

natural gas vehicles and stations (start with fleets to solve the Catch-22)
-it takes between 15 and 35 barrels of oil to make each car, not even including the amount of coal and oil needed to construct the stations.

expanded natural gas drilling (solve infrastructure & supply problems)
-it takes oil to drill for gas or oil. energy in on energy returned.

wind energy (stop the tax credit hocus pocus - fix it for a reasonable time period)
-if you can show me a way windmills are manufactured without oil I would love to see it.

vehicular electrical storage research (cost effective and reliable batteries or other devices)
-research requires oil to power the labs, the machines, etc.

design & production of more efficient cars (lighter, smaller EV's, plug-in hybrids and diesels)
-more oil as stated above.

offshore drilling (offshore West Coast, East Coast, Florida Coast)
biofuels research (enzyme & pyrolysis-based cellulosic ethanol, algae-based oil production)
-lots more oil. the offshore drilling canard is laughable. if we started exploring for areas right this moment, (remember not all leased land has oil, leased land is: land leased for exploration, we haven't a clue if there is any oil on said lease), we wouldn't see a drop of oil for at least 10-15 years and by they point, it really won't matter anymore.

nuclear plants (fast-track & standardize the design, licensing and construction)
-even fast tracked nuclear plans still have to be built and that will take anywhere from 7-14 years. Still requires oil to build them. Even fast tracked!! there are also those pesky little regulations that the repubs all like to moan and groan about. but if you say to h*ll with the regs, fine, you can have it built in your backyard, then.

coal plants (use best available, cost-effective clean up technology)
-there is no such thing as clean coal. doesn't exist. and if you prattle on about sequestion, show me right now a plan that is in place to create such a magical place. It's still only theory. Nothing, with capital N, has been done as of yet and there are no plans on the horizon. And there is no confirmation that it actually works.

solar thermal innovations & implementations
-oil to create panels. oil to create the needed equipment.

I constantly ask the same question time and time again, yet no one is able to answer me: if we are to continue on our current industrial way, explain to me how we are going to smelt metal and create lubricants to run machines all done without oil?

think on that for a while before you go spouting off again.

We have built ourselves into a metaphorical corner with oil. If you can even think that civilization will look anything like it does right now; 50 years from today, I have a bridge to sell you.